Some Final Thoughts on the 2016 Presidential Election

This year, I saw America. This wasn't a specific goal, but the circumstance and result of doing some long-awaited traveling. I spent quality time in seven different states, including a part of my home state of Illinois that I hadn't visited in some time. I nonchalantly interacted with locals, tried things I had never previously experienced, met the spouses and family of good friends, and generally tried to appreciate the atmosphere of an unfamiliar terrain. I connected with some wonderful people and created memories that I'll always treasure, in an attempt to temporarily bridge a gap between age, religion, and culture.

I mention age, religion, and culture because I spent of this time in what would be considered "red state" territory. The atmosphere was humble and relatively speaking, socially conservative. I largely avoided talking politics, even though this brutal election was on nearly everyone's minds. I came to realize that Donald Trump, the multimillionaire who finagled his way to the Republican presidential nomination, represented none of these people.

In the early days of the 2016 presidential campaign, I was baffled by how Trump and his incendiary, nationalist rhetoric was polling ahead of the perceived GOP front-runner, Gov. Jeb Bush. As it turned out his anti-Mexican, anti-Muslim, and mostly meninist platform catered to an ignored demographic, a new silent majority of sorts: social conservatives that didn't identify as Republicans. They were on the fringes of society and politics itself: bigots, rubes, conspiracy theorists. The type of people that make the most appalling hashtags trend on Twitter, who only listen to conservative news-talk pundits like Michael Savage, Rush Limbaugh, and Alex Jones and perceive them as beacons and not bilious entertainers. In other words, people who think mainstream conservatism is too out of touch with their toxic beliefs.

Indeed, Trump took advantage of this silent majority, and made Twitter his playground. If the election was limited to one social media outlet, then the New York real estate mogul would be winning decisively. He ran laps around Sec. Clinton, demonstrating a lack of filter and tact not previously seen by a presidential candidate. The woman who would become the Democratic candidate did her best to take the high road until she finally told Trump off. She tweeted "Delete your account," a succinct but oddly flaccid retort. Where Clinton emphasized her many qualifications (and Trump's lack thereof), Trump just kept attacking anything and everything without remorse. The pandering and flame-throwing was incessant, and his status as the fringe right's patron saint was solidified. Clinton knew better than to add gasoline to a flame war, and stayed on the high road instead.

I grew up around mostly Republicans in a shallow-red Chicago suburb. I was raised to not judge a person by their gender or race or faith or creed, even though my hometown circa 1991 was overwhelmingly white and Catholic. That wasn't something to came to me innately; I remember my first grade teacher, a woman of Greek descent, struggling to explain why Martin Luther King Jr. and Rosa Parks were so important to American history to a classroom that was over 90% white. I had two minority classmates, a third-generation Mexican-American and a girl who was half-Haitian, half-African American. The Latinx classmate was extroverted and well-liked, but the other girl was awkward, timid, and a bully target. My teacher failed to make her (and our class in general) understand what King and Parks sacrificed to give her the right to be as equal as everyone else. It was until she moved away, about a year later, that my classmates and I realized how awful we were.

When I see the childish antics of Trump's most ardent supporters, I think back to that first grade classroom. They all had something in common: they were rural or suburban and overwhelmingly white, but also left behind in the new economy, expect easy answers to hard questions, and worst of all reluctant to accept that America is more multicultural and diverse than its ever been. They see Muslims, blacks, and the LGBTQ community as threats, but their real-life interaction with them is minimal and they base their fear out of stereotype. As a result white supremacy, anti-Semitism and sexism have shifted from the fringes to the middle of the discussion. Moderate conservatives, or at least Republicans that supported minimally more palatable candidates like Ted Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson, begrudgingly joined the frenetic Trump bandwagon because, well, who else was going to beat Hillary?

Even though the Democrats have labeled itself as the "party for women," there was a time in the early-to-mid 1980s when the GOP headquarters staffed more women than men. Where Democrats have more or less embraced feminism (with some qualms), Republicans have largely been either ambivalent or oblivious. Where the women of the GOP mostly stayed in low-level administrative roles, women in the opposing party ran for office and inspired the next generation to follow their footsteps. The backward legacy of Phyllis Schlafly, the face of anti-feminism, lingers in the GOP months after his death and will likely do so for years to come. If the 2012 election was a deliberation on women's health rights, then 2016 is about what it means to be an American woman, period.

This is the sixth election, presidential or midterm, that I've covered in this blog. I usually end each pre-election missive with a nonpartisan plea to vote, to demonstrate the most basic tenet of democracy. This year, I can't bring myself to play my intercession down the middle. Where Hillary Clinton has many flaws, Donald Trump has proven repeatedly that he is vile and shortsighted beyond redemption. He is shameless opportunist that will break every campaign promise the moment he enters the White House, then blame his failures on everyone except himself.  Trump was overexposed as a reality star 10-plus years ago and exhaustively omnipresent now. Say all you want about decades of unproven rumors and right-wing vilification, Hillary Clinton is the only logical choice to be our next president. Someone will bring up Benghazi and the private emails, but someone else will retort with at least 20 things that Trump did. This election is about a leader against a demagogue. Beyond the former first lady, there is no other viable option.

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It's Over

It's over.

I wondered if sharing this Roy Orbison song was too on the nose, but it ran through my head as I forced myself to watch these last two weeks of election coverage. The temptation was too much.
As a presidential candidate, and the likely instigator of what must be the ugliest election I've ever seen, Donald Trump has been able to persist through one perceived miscue and campaign faux pas after another. Now it appears that the meltdown is all but complete. Leaked video footage of Trump making lewd and beyond appalling remarks in a 2005 "Access Hollywood" appearance cemented the floating perception that he was a hopeless misogynist. After a succinct apology in the second presidential debate, at least a half-dozen women have stepped forward to accuse Trump of lewd behavior. His foothold with woman voters, shaky as it already was, has collapsed. Just about every demographic except white males have abandoned Trump as this point, if they were ever on board to begin with. Worse yet, it reinvigorated the national discussion on sexual assault that hurt the Republican Party as a whole in the 2012 election.

One might wonder why these women haven't stepped forward until now. I suppose my response to that is why does timing matter? The women that have accused Trump of sexual harassment have their entire livelihoods at stake; the man being accused could let these accusations bounce off like Teflon. The man is a multi-millionaire and a presidential candidate, after all. There are parallels here to the downfall of comedian Bill Cosby; where the sitcom star was a serial date-rapist, Trump has a history of inappropriately touching fully conscious women. There are vast differences, overly simplified in some people's eyes, but both are appalling and reprehensible behaviors regardless.

Regardless of your opinion of Sec. Hillary Clinton --and yes, she has plenty of detractors-- we have to accept that she will be the next President of the United States. Her campaign has been at times uninspiring and perhaps even clumsy, but it never sank to the incompetence, bloviating, and pandering of the Trump campaign. (I will spare you the "Pretty Woman" reference.) It will not be a canonization or a coronation, but a reminder that most of the time, the bad guy loses.

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Random Notes, September 2016

The first presidential debate of 2016 reminded me of a boxing match. Donald Trump may have thrown more punches --an insult here and there, on top of a zillion interruptions-- but maybe half of them landed. However, Hillary Clinton simultaneously kept her cool yet knew exactly how to provoke (and expose) Trump. The GOP candidate's remark on stamina, and Clinton's clever response, ending up being the knockout punch.  Trump didn't seem to take a big plunge in the polls --you have to admit, the hayseeds that have hijacked the GOP are fiercely loyal to the guy-- but his first head-to-head match-up was by no means a success.

Besides talking about this blasted election, what else is going on?

+ My Royals are not going to the playoffs this year. I've done my best to not whine about our erratic pitching and the various key injuries we've had this year, but I will readily admit that another postseason wasn't in the cards for 2016. Right now, a .500 record for a fourth consecutive year is a more attainable goal. This roster probably has another year left before the economics of the game eats the organization alive (i.e. free agency) so I'm already looking forward to next year.

+ On the home front, I started grad school in late August. I'm going for a masters in secondary education, with a focus on English and language arts. So far things are going okay, it's been a matter of keeping up with the coursework. Still, I'm giving myself one semester just to see if this is going to work out, and the program takes 2 1/2 years.

+ Happy belated third anniversary to Stu News!

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Sudden Resurgence

What a difference a month makes. Since the wonks first wrote off the Trump campaign, the polarizing real estate magnate has made an effort of sorts to "sound" presidential while not necessarily overhauling his platform or agenda. At the same time, despite what conservative critics would call miscues --the pneumonia situation was blown way out of proportion-- Hillary Clinton's campaign hasn't seemed very inspiring. As a result, the knee-slapper from mid-August is a tight race again.

If name-calling, xenophobia, and outright falsehoods drove new faces into the Republican tent, then I'm sure that particular part of Donald Trump's rhetoric can't be forgotten as this sordid election zooms past third base. Perhaps the most blatant about-face was Trump's announcement that he believed the incumbent president was born in Hawaii and not Kenya, ending 5 1/2 years of conspiracy theorizing. (I'll well aware that this sad "birther" phenomenon started well before that.) I suppose he can use that bizarre about-face to his leverage, as many Americans can't get past that whole e-mail thing, but it's a still a admission of Trump's blatant opportunism.

*sigh* Only six more weeks...

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Thoughts on an Imploding Candidacy

Midway through the first week of August, what appeared to be a close race for president suddenly became a knee-slapper. Fresh off a strong convention performance, Secretary Clinton took a double-digit lead in the national polls; a series of miscues by the always polarizing Donald Trump further augmented Clinton's lead. Between waffling on endorsing three high-ranking Republicans (later rectified), allegedly kicking a crying baby out of a rally (seemingly misconstrued, then blamed on "the liberal media"), and demonizing a Muslim-American casualty of war and his family (no apology yet), the Trump campaign is looking rather wobbly. I'm probably understating that, but at least liberals and conservatives alike realize his candidacy is even more toxic than it was at face value. This latest idiotic remark could be a death knell for an otherwise teflon candidacy... or not.

For now, Trump's departure from the presidential race is simply wishful thinking. He has proven, however what many Republican insiders have worried about: that he is simply too oderous and temperamental for the constant scrutiny of the Oval Office. If Hillary Clinton is leading in the polls in Ohio and Florida by at least 5% on Labor Day, then consider this election over. Trump's insane rhetoric brought the fringe right back into the GOP, but with the party struggling to find its identity (to put it mildly) it likely won't be enough to win the Oval Office.

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Finding the Gooey Center

Maybe this election wasn't meant for liberals. The announcement Friday night of Sen. Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton's running mate was notably not a surprise and admittedly a slight letdown. In a contested primary season where self-admitted "Democratic Socialist" Bernie Sanders went toe-to-toe with the embattled former Secretary of State, what mattered more was appealing to centrists and jaded moderates. Kaine's supporters will attest that he has more liberal credentials than what appears at face value, but anyone expecting Sanders or Liz Warren or anything further left will have to bite the bullet. Kaine is very compatible with Clinton politically, only slightly left-leaning but pragmatic and malleable, almost as if Hillary had chosen a second husband. (Yes, go ahead and put your Clinton sex joke here.) The only thing for certain here is that a Pence-Kaine Vice Presidential debate will be a partisan snooze-fest.

Arguably the most grotesque presidential race in recent memory is circling third and heading home. Some polls would indicate that Donald Trump holds an advantage over Clinton in the polls, but the Kaine pick likely throws it back to 50/50. Secretary Clinton, for all of her flaws, is the only viable alternative to Trump's insult-throwing circus act. (I can only hope Gary Johnson will eat away at the conservative core.) Trump's acceptance speech this past Thursday may have looked and felt more presidential that what we've seen in the previous 13 months of his campaign, but I saw through the veneer.

Speaking of which, from a satirical perspective, the Republican National Convention was almost like manna. It was a mass menagerie of easy targets, some you saw coming (Chris Christie) and others you didn't quite expect (Melania Trump). The fringe loonies have taken over the GOP, the sane Republicans stayed home, and inexplicably Ted Cruz was the sole voice of reason.

If there is any condolence to what may happen in November, keep in mind that in 2012 we reelected a third consecutive president; that has only happened once before in American history (Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe). The possibility of a fourth straight president getting a second term, regardless of how speculative that would be at this point, is unlikely. Both of these candidates look and feel like one-term presidents at this point, potential placeholders for something better.

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The Precedent for President

It may surprise some people that this year's wacky presidential race may have some historical precedent. The rules that outline how a national election can be organized have not changed much since the U.S. Constitution was written nearly 230 years ago, which has made for drama and high tension. The 2000 race, determined by the U.S. Supreme Court, was the most recent example of a presidential race reaching an photo finish, to put it mildly. The election of 1824, much like today, was the culmination of years of unsettled tension reaching an ugly crescendo.

To set the scene: leading up to 1824, the original two-party system that emerged in the early days of the republic had disintegrated. The Federalist Party collapsed, leaving the Democratic Republicans (today's Democrats, more or less) without a viable opponent. The Dem-Reps controlled all three branches of government, with laws and legislation being passed without much opposition. In the wake of the Napoleonic Wars and the crushing defeat following the War of 1812, Americans sought unity. This time period of unilateralism became known as "The Era of Good Feelings." It was pleasant enough on the surface, but unsustainable and rotting from within.

President James Monroe strove to downplay partisan affiliation, with the ultimate goal of national unity and eliminating parties altogether from national politics. For that reason, his agenda and The Era of Good Feelings are almost synonymous with each other. To prevent upheaval and discourage rivalries, political opponents like John C. Calhoun and John Quincy Adams were given high-ranking positions in Monroe's cabinet.  On the national level, Monroe was well-liked enough to be reelected in 1820 with all but one electoral vote; William Plumer, an elector from New Hampshire, thought Monroe was incompetent and put his support behind the younger Adams.

When Monroe chose not to seek a third term in 1824, all the delicate alliances our fifth president had built slowly came crashing down. His heir apparent, Vice President Daniel D. Tompkins was not only unpopular but also in poor health (indeed, Tompkins died three months after leaving office). The Democratic-Republicans were faced with a wide-open race; the traditional Congressional caucus, the precursor to today's conventions, chose Treasury Sec. William H. Crawford to succeed Monroe. However, the caucus was sparsely attended and perceived as undemocratic. Crawford stayed in the race, but he quickly found himself lagging behind three upstarts: Secretary Adams, General Andrew Jackson, and Speaker of the House Henry Clay.

John Quincy Adams, the son of a former president, was well liked by the last vestiges of the Federalist Party but mostly aligned with the Democratic-Republicans. Rep. Clay, a populist rabble-rouser, made Appalachia (then the U.S. west) his stronghold. General Jackson, the one non-politician in the race, was a respected war hero with a strong following in rural areas, especially in the South and mid-Atlantic states. Adams and Crawford split the east, with Adams holding a narrow advantage in New England. They all conflicted over policy, especially in regard to tariffs, but this would be a race of both favorite sons as well as geography.

There is no provision in the U.S. Constitution that enables a two-party system; historically, most of our federal elections have been set by two semi-rigid party platforms, but it has been largely happenstance. Third parties have come and gone with a short wave of momentum but limited long-term impact. For its time, an election with four viable presidential candidates was unprecedented. Secretary of War John C. Calhoun was briefly a fifth option, but opted to seek the vice presidential nomination; his political beliefs were more aligned with Jackson's, but he made no effort to distance himself from Adams.

Once all the votes were tallied in December 1824 (there was no consensus election day at the time), none of the four candidates got the 50% of the popular vote needed to win. Andrew Jackson carried 41.4% of the vote, hardly a majority. Because of a provision in the 12th Amendment, the top three candidates would have to be elected in a special vote my Congress. Clay, who finished fourth, was eliminated but opted to endorse Adams. It was enough to sway Congress to vote narrowly in favor Adams' presidency. In return, Adams made the controversial choice to appoint Clay his Secretary of State. The Democratic-Republicans ceased to be shortly after.

For the first time in American history, a candidate that won the popular vote failed to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency. The election of 1828 was not only a rematch, but a moratorium of sorts for Adams' middling term in office. The pulse of the nation was still polarized, but Jackson had more popular support --and the electoral votes necessary-- to quash Adams' quest for reelection.

I suppose in this convoluted analogy, Hillary Clinton is Adams, Donald Trump is Jackson, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is Crawford, and Bernie Sanders is Clay. The former two make far more sense than the latter two; Clinton is the safe establishment candidate, while Trump is the known brand with the mix of outsider appeal and worrisome baggage. Maybe Sanders' supporters will come around to vote for Hillary, but there is a long road ahead and many compromises to be made. For disenfranchised Republicans, Gary Johnson might actually make more sense than the bloviating, opportunistic Trump. In spite of the circus atmosphere, there is a unique precedent.

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Rhapsody in Tan/Orange

Last week I wondered if Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner could already be written off as a failure. Now I wonder if the GOP has conjointly lost its soul. Death notices aside, it was the abject failure of Republican Party leaders to acknowledge and tamp down the grass-roots momentum of Donald Trump that caused this presidential race to turn into a mud-slinging train wreck. The rich oligarchy that almost unilaterally dominated sustained the GOP until the Tea Party movement has let that power slip through their fingers. They underestimated the number of Americans that are both conservative and poor, and embraced an unpredictable candidate that didn't want or need their campaign money.

In spite of Donald Trump's polarizing presence, his ability to galvanize social conservatives and libertarians alike does not ensure an easy victory for whomever wins the Democratic nomination come November. Trump's campaign hit a sweet spot for a portion of the populace that leans right but never votes. Common sense aside, the "Trumpeters" will come out en masse in November, ensuring only a close race against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Perhaps its the fault of party leaders, the "mainstream" conservatives that didn't anticipate --or vastly underestimated-- the anti-establishment ruminations of the past decade. (The Democrats have a similar issue.) In any case, the people have chosen their candidates, and now this three-ring circus is consolidating into its final act.

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Random Notes, November 2015

The election is now less than a year away, but the chaos is only slightly beginning to subside. Where the Democratic primary has weeded out some of the weaker candidates --I forgot Larry Lessig was running until, well, he quit-- the Republican primary is still an insane dogfight. You have at least three candidates (Dr. Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum) that are all fighting for the same Christian-conservative demographic. You also have Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and George Pataki struggling to make any leeway against one another for the more moderate sector of the GOP. I don't know Rand Paul is aiming for, because he keeps flip-flopping. It is sort of amusing to see that the GOP prides itself in unity, but couldn't be more splintered on the national stage.

At the same time, the Democrats can be like herding cats, yet their strategy for 2016 is actually inching toward coelescing. For obvious reasons, Saturday's Democratic debate was dominated by domestic security and foreign policy. With limited extra effort, Sec. Clinton more or less proved why she was the most electable of the three candidates; Sen. Sanders seemed wishy-washy about gun control, and his comment about how the Middle East should defend itself against ISIS was a tad naive. Martin O'Malley made some valid points, but he's not a strong debater. In spite of her many flaws, Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' best shot in 2016; with the growing populist movement within the party --a Bizarro Tea Party, one might say-- she needs to shake off some of her establishment ticks and roll up her sleeves. Her extensive history with foreign affairs resulted in a crucial KO last night, but Clinton still has a long way to go.

Other notes:

+ I'm very reluctant to air out my dirty laundry, but I felt like this was sort of worth sharing. For the past two years, I've been manhandled by crippling credit card debt. In the summer and fall of 2013, in quick procession I had to deal with multiple car repairs, on top of producing a show that did not turn a profit. I put nearly everything on my Visa, then relied upon on my Mastercard for future purchases. Then I went through an extended period where I wasn't working a regular basis, so then I ended up maxing out both cards nearly every month. I'm proud to say, however that after some shrewed budgeting most of that debt has now cleared. I'm still living on modest means, but I don't quite feel as handcuffed as before.

+ I have no words for what has transpired in France this weekend. This was a massive act of cowardice, one that cannot be justified or quickly forgotten. My thoughts and prayers are with the people of Paris.

Next Week: My annual thanks/no thanks list.

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By a Hair

Every now and then, I like to post an assortment of quick dispatches:

+ It scares me a little to see Donald Trump in second place in the latest GOP presidential polls. If it were any other dark horse candidate I'd be amused at the slightest, but Trump's campaign announcement --a hopelessly clueless diatribe where he vilified Mexican day workers-- has corralled together the staunchest hardliners on immigration. It's essentially a delicately assembled alliance of bigots and reactionary, middle-aged white males, rallying around the maypole for an out of touch, camera-hungry multi-millionaire. At this rate, Trump can't be ignored; it will only enable him further. For now, we'll just have to wait until his campaign inevitably falls apart.

+ There is no question about Hillary Clinton's frontrunner status, but at least the hodgepodge of other Democratic candidates is at least making the race look interesting. The far left has found an unlikely savior in Bernie Sanders, moderates have found some interest in former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, and the few remaining conservative Democrats are placing their bets on Sen. Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee is... here, I guess. Maybe the sudden return of Bloom County will help make sense of all this.

+ Am I imaging things, or are people downplaying what an embarrassment it was for the Mexican government to let "El Chapo" escape? Heads must be rolling at every level.

+ Finally, this month marks the second anniversary of Stu News, my satire-based Facebook page. I'm still posting six jokes a week for your comedy pleasure. Check it out if you haven't done so already (or recently).

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