It's probably too soon to speculate who will challenge Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential nomination. We're 20 months out, but given how election cycles supercede into each other, and Biden's multiple vulnerabilities, the speculation has already started. I expect a dogfight almost on the level of the 2016 primaries, but given that eight years ago all eyes were on George W. Bush's brother, I could be dead wrong about everything:
Many eyes are on Gov. Ron DeSantis, the socially conservative firebrand. In many ways, he's the anti-Trump: young, politically experienced, a veteran, and not hindered by scandal and legal problems. Right now, DeSantis is stirring the culture war pot more than the ex-president, almost to the point that he exists solely to troll progressives. Assuming he runs, he's the narrow favorite at the moment.
Then there's the old, familiar face. The Trump campaign exists, and outside of his most ardent admirers, isn't gaining much momentum. He turns 77 this summer and looks every day of it. He's looked weary, his fiery rhetoric limited mostly to his fledging social media platform, Truth Social. That doesn't mean, however he doesn't have a clear path to the nomination.
Then there's the traitor. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley's campaign announcement had the usual "liberal media" and "fight for freedom" clichés, but she knows Trump has a history of marginalizing and putting down women of color. In short, Nikki Haley is the most palatable GOP candidate. That's not saying much.
In short, the right-wing echo chambers will start their quadrennial bickering soon enough. I'd prefer to be outside looking in.
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